Possible changes in spatial distribution of walnut (Juglans regia L.) in Europe under warming climate

Abstract Juglans regia L. is a species of great importance for environmental management due to attractive wood and nutritious fruits, but also high invasive potential. Thus, uncertainties connected with its range shift are essential management. We aimed predict the future climatic optimum J. in Europe under changing climate, assess most important factors that determine potential distribution, compare results obtained among three different global circulation models (GCMs). used distribution data from Global Biodiversity Information Facility completed it literature. Using MaxEnt algorithm, we prepared model years 2061–2080 using 19 bioclimatic variables. applied emission scenarios, expressed by representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 GCMs: HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MPI-SM-LR. Our study predicted northward species, simultaneous loss at southern edge current range, driven increasing climate seasonality. Temperature seasonality temperature annual were predictors highest importance. General trends common projections presented, variability our GCMs or RCPs (predicted will contract 17.4 84.6% area) shows caution should be maintained while managing populations. Adaptive measures focus on maintaining genetic resources assisted migration edge, contraction. Simultaneously, northern turns into an which may need risk assessments control unintended spread.